Deadline has a nice overview of the recent faith-movie trend:
After the strong staying power of this weekend’s God’s Not Dead and the stronger than expected opening of Noah following on the heels of the surprise opening of Son of God earlier this year, is there any doubt anymore Hollywood that if you build it, they will come? That’s three for three … but wait, actually there’s more. Back in 2008, the Kirk Cameron-starring Fireproof took a lot of people by surprise. On a $500,000 budget raised by Sherwood Baptist church, the faith-based picture ended up grossing $33.4M when it was released. They did it again in 2011, when on a $2M budget, Courageous opened to $9.1M and went onto make $34.5M. Before that, in 2004, the Mel Gibson-directed The Passion of the Christ opened to $83.8M domestically and went on to gross $611M worldwide.
“I think that is a smart assumption,” Megan Colligan, president of domestic marketing and distribution for Paramount told Deadline. 
The next heavenly story up will be Heaven Is For Real, based on the 2010 book written by Todd Burpo and Lynn Vincent. The book debuted at No. 3 on the New York Times best-sellers list and then rose to No. 1. Sony purchased rights to the book in 2011 and Randall Wallace (Braveheart) is directing. The movie stars Greg Kinnear (As Good as It Gets). Unaided awareness for the film is pretty low at the moment two weeks out, but with the right marketing campaign, Sony could pull off the fourth faith-based film to open decently.
Affirm Films, which typically gears its features toward evangelical Christians, has the family comedy Moms’ Night Out starring Patricia Heaton, Sean Astin and Trace Adkins opening on May 9, Mother's Day Weekend. Affirm made $43.9 million stateside with the $18 million-budgeted Soul Surfer in April 2011. On October 3, the Nicolas Cage action film Left Behind about a commercial airline pilot steering his plane in the aftermath of the rapture will be released. Then on December 12, Fox releases Exodus, which is more along the lines of the big-budget Noah. The Biblical tale in Exodus is that of Moses as played by Christian Bale who leads the Israelites out of Egypt to a safe haven. Will it be epic? It’s a Ridley Scott movie.
So will there be more of these Biblical/faith-based films, and can they be sustainable past their first opening weekends and, more importantly, churn a profit for the filmmakers and distributors? “It’s a good question and I don’t know the answer to that,” said Fox’s Chris Aronson. “As far as sustainability and profitability, it’s hard to say because of the differences in the budgets. There are plenty of examples of faith-based films that have been smartly marketing and targeted to a faith-based audiences that have been successful. It proves that there is an appetite for it, but I think that credibility is an issue as well.” He notes that filmmakers and distribs must be involved in catering toward faith-based audiences. “You can’t pull the wool over the faith-based audiences eyes because they will see it and reject it. And I think (Son of God producers) Mark Burnett and Roma Downey had ultimate credibility because they went directly to the opinion makers in the faith-based community and showed that they had the goods.”
Usually, the way these pictures perform is that they open strong and then fall off. That was the case for Son of God which dropped about 60% in its second weekend, but despite that, this re-edited film from History's The Bible series footage, has grossed $57.9M as of this weekend.
God’s Not Dead had the third-highest per screen with around $7,714 per screen in its second weekend; third only behind Noah ($12,335) and Budapest Hotel ($9,007). Its per screen average is also above the second weekend of Lionsgate’s franchise in the making Divergent ($6,732). It only fell 1% in its second weekend out. Easter is around the corner. So will it do well through Easter or was this second weekend a fluke? Was it helped by the power of Duck Dynasty (with stars Willie and Korie Robertson) who made an appearance and helped to promote the film?
The lesson to studio heads and marketers is — whether its Noah, God’s Not Dead, Son Of God, Fireproof or Courageous – there is an audience for Biblical films. Perhaps, it takes a thoughtful approach to pull it off. Son of God played well across the country, but Roma and Mark had and took the time to meet with church leaders and listen to them and then incorporate marketing and distribution strategies to open the film to the particular audience.
Tapping into the faith-based audience means speaking directly to these infrequent moviegoers in a way that is credible on a budget that is reasonable. They have proven to be bankable. So, say, a major star anchors one of these — instead of a Kevin Sorbo or Kirk Cameron — and makes a financially-responsible deal for all parties involved, it could prove a new audience for that star and also a nice sum for all profit participants. Also at the same time, these pictures give exhibitors the kind of lower-end budgeted movies that are often more profitable than the Hollywood tentpoles.
These individuals may be infrequent moviegoers for mainstream movies, but they are frequent moviegoers for Biblical and faith-based films. And as Fortune 500 companies have found in developing new products for a new market, there are pitfalls, yes, but if and when you hit it’s a goldmine of loyal customers. And for a star, it could be their biggest openings to date, which was the case for Russell Crowe this weekend in Noah. Combining its marketing to faith-based and to mainstream action audiences, Paramount pulled it off. And Crowe and the studio can thank, in no small part, Emma Watson and her team for her strong social media footprint (and savvy on how to utilize it).
Aronson sums it up nicely: “What this shows is that there is an appetite for these type of movies and that there is a particular segment of the population that is being terribly under-served and if you give them the product they want to see, they will come.”
